From Anatol Lieven today: "The mobilization, of course, is a significant act of escalation in itself (though also a predictable response to recent Ukrainian battlefield successes). What makes it truly dangerous, however, is that this was announced in tandem with Putin’s endorsement of planned votes in Donbas and other Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine over whether those regions will join the Russian federation.
If these areas are annexed by Russia, this will make any peace settlement in Ukraine much more difficult for a long time to come.
The very best that we could then hope for would be a situation like that of Kashmir over the past 75 years: unstable ceasefires punctuated by armed clashes, terrorist attacks, and occasional full-scale war. Along with all the other dangers and suffering caused by such a long-term semi-frozen conflict, it would make it nearly impossible for Ukraine to achieve the sort of progress necessary to join the European Union.
If on the other hand Ukraine looked as if it was going to reconquer these territories, then nuclear war would become a real possibility...
Please read more at Responsible Statecraft this morning: https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/09/22/tick-tock-putin-escalation-begins-countdown-of-diplomacy-clock/
All the best for a great day -
Kelley